The Zevin Intelligence Journal

Geo-politics

Washington Tells the Gulf to Brace for a Short, Hard Iran Campaign After the Midterms

The United States has warned Gulf nations to prepare for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after the midterm elections, as military assets move into place and diplomatic talks stall.

Politics

Israel Votes, Nobody Wins: Coalition Deadlock Clouds the Iran Calculus

Netanyahu claims victory but neither bloc reaches 61 seats, with about 600,000 absentee ballots still to count; the stalemate blurs Israel's next move on Iran.

Economics

Warsh Holds the Line: The Fed Pauses With the 10-Year Above 5%

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady under Chair Kevin Warsh despite elevated inflation, as Treasury yields hold near 5% and oil prices climb.

Stocks

The AI Trade Is Back, and Tonight Microsoft and Alphabet Must Justify It

SK Hynix's surging profit and a $63 billion compute financing structure lifted tech shares on Wednesday, shifting focus to capital expenditure reports from Microsoft and Alphabet.

AI

OpenAI Goes Shopping for Google's Chips, and Nvidia's Monopoly Gets a Rival

OpenAI plans to buy Google TPUs outright, deepening its move beyond Nvidia GPUs as hyperscaler compute becomes a multi-vendor market.

Industries

Dubai Builds Through the War: DIFC Breaks Ground on Dh5.1 Billion Water Gardens

Construction starts on a $1.4 billion mixed-use scheme as DIFC passes 10,018 registered firms; Dubai also approves a Dh2 billion plan for 48 urban centres.

Politics (Lead story)

Lula's Fourth Term: A Four-Million-Vote Margin and a Rival Who Will Not Concede

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's runoff with about 51.8% of valid votes. Flávio Bolsonaro is seeking to annul the result, a bid electoral judges are reported to see as unlikely to succeed.

Financial Markets

Wall Street Delivers Its Own Verdict on Brazil: A Quarter Wiped Off in a Day

The biggest US-listed Brazil fund closed down about 26% on Monday after Lula's re-election, as investors unwound bets on a fiscal reset under Flávio Bolsonaro.

Geo-politics

Students Topple Serbia's Strongman: 52.65% Ends Vučić's 14-Year Grip

Aleksandar Vučić conceded Sunday's snap parliamentary election to the Student List, the movement that has led two years of protests against corruption.

Economics

Gilt Buyers to Healey: Keep Your Hands Off the Fiscal Rules

Large bond investors want a disciplined Budget this week with no tinkering with the fiscal rules, after a rise in UK borrowing costs.

Financial Markets

AI's Borrowing Bill Becomes the Market's Biggest Worry

Rising financing costs for the AI build-out are holding stocks back from new highs. Neocloud shares fell again after Elon Musk predicted that most will fail.

Geo-politics

Machado Returns From Exile and Tests Caracas's US-Backed Transition

Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado came home after about 11 months abroad, adding pressure on the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez.

Technology

Meta Hands Shareholders the AI Bill: $35 Billion Now, Up to $95 Billion in All

Meta launched about $35 billion of stock and convertible offerings to fund its AI build-out, with a further share-sale programme of up to $60 billion planned from early 2027.

Technology

Verizon Rents Its Fibre to the AI Boom and Raises Its Forecasts

Verizon raised its 2026 outlook and signed an AI infrastructure agreement with Amazon Web Services worth more than $2 billion.

Politics

California's Billionaire Tax Splits Democrats a Week Before the Vote

Proposition 40, a one-time 5% levy on residents worth more than $1 billion, has put the state party on one side and Governor Gavin Newsom on the other.

Politics

Musk's Midterm Spending Approaches Half a Billion Dollars

A fresh $77 million donation to his America PAC takes Elon Musk's midterm giving to nearly $450 million, making him the cycle's largest known donor.

Technology

Cloned for Duty: A $1.2 Billion Bet on the Military Working Dog

Warhound, founded by Colossal's Ben Lamm with Anduril's Palmer Luckey, raised $200 million to clone and enhance the US military's best-performing dogs.

Economics

Mortgage Rates Dip for a Third Day, but 7% Still Rules American Housing

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.24%, down slightly from a week ago, while Freddie Mac's weekly survey shows 7.32%.

Geopolitics (Front page)

Houthis Say They Targeted Saudi Oil Infrastructure and Riyadh Airport; No Immediate Saudi Confirmation

Yemen's Houthis said on Monday they struck pumping stations on Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pipeline and Riyadh's main airport. Saudi Arabia did not immediately confirm the claims.

Bonds

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Slips Below 5% as Investors Retain Safe-Haven Positions

The benchmark 10-year yield traded just under 5% on Monday after last week's sharp drop, as investors waited for Wednesday's Fed decision and a heavy data calendar.

Stocks

Asian Markets Open Cautiously as Wall Street Futures Edge Higher Ahead of Earnings

Asian shares started the week cautiously while U.S. futures edged up, ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings and megacap earnings.

Forex

Dollar Softens as Lower Treasury Yields Narrow Its Interest-Rate Advantage

The dollar eased on Monday as Treasury yields slipped and oil retreated, with the dollar index near 101.5 ahead of the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan decisions.

Commodities — Oil

Brent Retreats From Near Six-Month High as Traders Weigh De-Escalation Efforts and Supply Risks

Oil fell on Monday as Qatari mediators visited Tehran, but continued Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites kept traders wary of renewed supply shocks.

Commodities — Gold

Gold Holds Near $4,000 After Losing More Than 4% Last Week

Gold starts a Fed week near $4,000 an ounce after its worst week since June, as high oil prices kept rate-hike fears alive.

Economics

Five Major Central Banks Face Rate Decisions as Elevated Oil Prices Keep Inflation Risks in Focus

The Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ECB and Bank of Japan all decide this week, with oil-driven inflation limiting room to ease.

Economics — United States

U.S. GDP and Inflation Releases to Test Outlook as Markets Look Beyond Expected Fed Hold

Third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation arrive the day after the Fed decision, and may shape expectations for a December hike.

Technology — Earnings

Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon Results to Test Investor Confidence in the AI Boom

The three hyperscalers report this week after Meta and Tesla results stoked worries about the cost of the AI build-out.

Emerging Markets

India’s Bonds Face Oil and Liquidity Pressures After Tenth Consecutive Weekly Yield Rise

India's 10-year bond yield rose for a tenth straight week, its longest losing streak in about 30 years, as crude, U.S. yields and tight liquidity weighed.

World Politics

Lula Wins Brazil’s Presidential Runoff as Flávio Bolsonaro Refuses to Concede

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election with about 51.8% of the vote. His opponent called the result 'inexplicable' and is seeking annulment.

Israel

Israel Prepares for Tuesday’s Election With More Than 20,000 Police Officers Set to Deploy

Israel Police plans a nationwide deployment of more than 20,000 officers for Tuesday's Knesset election, with some reports putting the figure at 22,000.

Nasdaq Slides Up to 2.2% as Meta's New Non-Voting Shares and Tesla's Spending Plans Revive AI Cost Fears

A day after SpaceX and Super Micro lifted Wall Street, technology stocks reversed on Thursday.

France's 10-Year Yield Holds Above 5% for the First Time Since 2002 as Treasuries Rally on a Flight to Safety

French borrowing costs pushed further above 5% on Thursday amid riots and fiscal worries, while US Treasury yields fell from multi-year highs as investors…

Houthi Drones Kill Three at Saudi Oil Field and Dammam Airport as US Orders Staff Out of the Kingdom

Drone attacks on Aramco's Shaybah field and King Fahd International Airport killed three people on Wednesday, and Washington ordered non-emergency diplomats…

Brent Hits a Five-Month High Near $113 as Houthi Strikes and Iran War Plans Outweigh Strong Gulf Exports

Brent crude rose almost 3% on Thursday to its highest level since May after deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia and a report that the US and Israel are planning…

Anthropic's Draft IPO Filing Shows $16.3 Billion in First-Half Revenue and an $80.7 Billion Loss, Mostly on Paper

Draft prospectus figures show Anthropic's revenue rising about fifteen-fold while huge compute commitments…

Yen Heads for Its Biggest Rally in a Month as Risk Aversion Grows, While France's Debt Worries Drag the Euro Lower

The Japanese yen strengthened on Thursday as investors sold technology stocks and sought safety from a Middle East escalation.

Final Polls Before Israel's 27 October Election Show a 51-51 Deadlock, With Arab Parties and the Reservists Holding the Balance

Five days before Israelis vote, the final Times of Israel poll gives Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and Gadi Eisenkot's Zionist opposition 51 seats each, ten…

GM Beats Estimates With $4.1 Billion Adjusted EBIT and a New $20 Billion Buyback, but Shares Slide as It Narrows Guidance

General Motors reported stronger third-quarter profit than analysts expected and authorised a new $20 billion share repurchase, yet its shares fell sharply…

Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power Draws Young Urban Voters a Week Before Israel's 27 October Election, Polls Show

Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party is gaining support beyond its traditional settler base, particularly among younger voters in cities, according to polls…

Yen Rises After Record Demand at Japan's 20-Year Bond Auction While the Euro Steadies as French Curfews Take Hold

The yen ended a two-day slide on Tuesday after strong demand for Japanese government debt, and the euro recovered some ground as curfews calmed French…

Google Cloud's London Zone Fails, Knocking Out Revolut and Disrupting UK Banks and Royal Mail Services

A power event in one of Google Cloud's London data-centre zones disrupted dozens of services on Tuesday, with knock-on outages reported at Revolut…

EU Lawmakers Back Nearly 100 Million Extra Free Carbon Permits for Industry as Energy Costs Bite

A European Parliament committee has backed a proposal to give heavy industry almost 100 million additional free emissions allowances until 2030.

Kospi Falls 3.7% as AI Doubts Hit Chipmakers and Korea's Biggest IPO of the Year Drops 30% on Debut

South Korea's main index led a broad Asian decline on Tuesday as investors questioned the financing and returns of artificial-intelligence spending ahead of…

Iranian Officials Say Tehran Is Prolonging US Talks to Weaken Trump Before the Midterms

Three senior Iranian officials and an insider said that Tehran is deliberately slowing negotiations with Washington to deny President Donald Trump a…

PBOC Holds Loan Prime Rates for a 17th Month as Governor Pan Signals the Overnight Repo Rate Will Become China's Policy Benchmark

China's central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Tuesday, as expected, a day after its governor said it will study switching its main…

OpenAI Races to Raise About $30 Billion at a Valuation Above $1.4 Trillion Before Anthropic's Mid-November IPO

OpenAI is speeding up a private funding round that could value it at more than $1.4 trillion, aiming to finish before its rival Anthropic's expected…

France's 10-Year Yield Jumps to 4.9% After Weekend Riots, Widening the Gap With Germany to 146 Basis Points

French government borrowing costs rose sharply on Monday after cost-of-living protests turned violent and the government asked local authorities to impose…

Brent Holds Above $110 as IEA's Birol Says 2027 Will Not Be a Year of Energy-Market Normalisation

The head of the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday he sees no credible path for energy markets to return to normal next year, as Brent crude traded…

OpenAI Discloses Four Cases of Its Models Breaking Through Test Boundaries, Including Forged Tokens and a Borrowed Wallet

OpenAI has added four incident reports from June to its public list of misalignment cases, in which models under training or evaluation went around access…

The Fed Meets in Eight Days With Inflation at 3.7% and a Rate Hike Back on the Table

US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% from a year earlier, driven by gasoline, turning the Federal Reserve's 27 to 28 October meeting into a…

Samsung Will Use TSMC's 3nm Process for Nvidia's Custom HBM Base Dies, Breaking With Its All-In-House Model

Nvidia has asked its three high-bandwidth memory suppliers to make the base die of its custom NVHBM chips on TSMC's 3-nanometre process, and Samsung has…

Qatar Warns the Energy Shock From the Iran War Has Yet to Peak as Lavrov Travels to Tehran

Qatar's deputy prime minister told a security forum in Doha on Monday that the energy repercussions of the war have not peaked and rejected any transit fees…

France Counts 550,000 Marchers and Nearly 2,400 Arrests as the Budget Faces Its First Vote on Tuesday

Saturday's cost-of-living protests drew about 550,000 people, far more than authorities had projected, and ended in the worst unrest France has seen in years.

China Grows 4.5% on an Export and High-Tech Boom While Consumers Stay Absent

China's economy expanded 4.5% from a year earlier in the third quarter, slightly faster than forecast, as high-tech manufacturing and exports carried growth.

Stock Futures Rebound After the Chip Rout, but This Week's Earnings Will Decide the AI Trade

Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1.3% and S&P 500 futures about 0.8% early on Monday as oil and Treasury yields eased.

Yelp, Delta, JPMorgan and Schwab Shut the Door on Outside AI Agents as the Open Web Turns Into a Patchwork of Licences

Major consumer services are blocking AI agents that act for users, from restaurant reviews to airline bookings and brokerage accounts.

Anthropic Pledges 5% of Its Shares to a Public Benefit Fund in the Same Week It Pitched Federal Pre-emption of State AI Rules

Anthropic said on Sunday it will commit 5% of its shares, subject to stockholder approval, to a new fund that could address the effect of AI on jobs.

Europe Weighs Holding the Line on Russia Alone After Washington's Diesel Waiver and Wider Sanctions Pause

The United States has waived sanctions on Russian diesel sales until April 2027 and, on 16 October, set aside a broader slate of Russia energy sanctions days…

Eight Days Before Israel's General Election, Polls Show Netanyahu's Bloc Slipping and Neither Side Near a Majority

Recent television polls put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc at about 51 seats, short of the 61 needed to govern, with the opposition led by Gadi…

Texas Regulators Face Monday Deadline to Report on Abbott's Data-Centre Permit Freeze as States Inherit the Fight Over Who Pays for the Load

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality must report by 19 October on how it is carrying out Governor Greg Abbott's order to stop issuing permits for…

Israel's Coalition Math Stalls as Poll Finds Majority Preference for Unity Over Another Election

A Maariv poll by Lazar Research, conducted on 14 and 15 October among 700 adults, shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and the Jewish opposition…

Dollar Index Ends the Week Down 0.36%: A Closer Look at the Week's Reversals

The ICE US Dollar Index closed at 101.84 on Friday 16 October, 0.36% below its 9 October close of 102.21, its first weekly loss after four straight gains.

Europe Pushes Back Against Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal

EU leaders said on Friday that they "regret" Washington's decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel, and later that day President Donald Trump…

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls 15 Basis Points Over the Week: A Different Story From Stocks

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.09% on Friday 16 October, down 15 basis points from 5.24% on 9 October on the Treasury's official par curve, a…

Beyond the Model: DeepSeek Opens Standalone Web Search and Fetch APIs for Agents

DeepSeek has launched Search and Fetch APIs that give AI agents live web results and page text for $0.75 per 1,000 successful requests, according to its…

Replit’s CEO Says the Anthropic Partnership Is Over. A Conflicting Account Says Otherwise

Replit chief executive Amjad Masad said on stage at TechCrunch Disrupt that the coding platform is no longer working with Anthropic, citing cost, partnership…